Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Blast from the past, or the hazards of predicting the future

This item, from Slashdot, is a best/worst list from 1994 and predictions of the future. Some examples are:

  • ISDN access will become a common standard for small office and home office access, allowing lots of new applications from conferencing to software distribution.

  • Return of the editors. The CB radio effect; too much noise from too many people; will drive more people to moderated lists and newsgroups.

  • Digital cash will bring home shopping and pay-per-view to the Internet, as well as new forms of asset protection, money laundering, and tax evasion.

  • Conflicts between local and global Internet jurisdictions will become more pronounced, especially over censorship issues. How will prosecutors in Tennessee go after posters from Denmark?

  • On-line politics will take off in a big way, with candidates for the 1996 presidential race making their positions available, soliciting funds, debating opponents, and forging postings from each other. Some campaign somewhere will get in trouble over dirty GIFs.

  • Cancelbot wars will erupt on some newsgroups. Some disbarred attorneys will unleash a doomsday bot that cancels every Usenet message that does not refer to their green card services.

No comments: